The Roaring 2020s: A Futures Analysis of The Coming Decade
By Julian Scaff
The View from 2021
The beginning of this decade was marked by the failed global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a rapid increase of climate disasters, global civil rights unrest, and the near overthrowing of the U.S. government. Much of the news is doom and gloom, and we face enormous challenges with existential consequences for the entire planet. Nonetheless, there is reason for optimism, and as is always the case during times of historical struggle, there are opportunities for innovation. This report highlights the phenomena that are likely to have the greatest impact on human life in this decade.
The Global Pandemic
COVID-19 has dominated the global mindspace since the start of 2020. In the past year, scientists have made incredible advances in vaccination technology, and we now have two highly effective mRNA-based vaccines. Moreover, since the new Biden Administration took over in January, we went from a place of having no national pandemic plan to inoculating nearly half of the U.S. population in less than six months. That’s a monumental achievement of both science and disaster response logistics, and demonstrates how quickly we can pivot from failure to success with concerted effort and a fact-based worldview.
However, we will be fighting this pandemic for years to come. The virus is still raging out of control in many parts of the world, and the new Delta variant is sweeping through the unvaccinated and breaking through many who are vaccinated, largely powered by disinformation and anti-vaccination conspiracy theories spread through social media. The mental illness of one human in power resulted in a concerted effort to deny the reality of the pandemic, and many people will continue to refuse vaccines and face masks as misguided acts of political protest. The longer this drags on, the more likely it is that increasingly dangerous variants of the virus will evolve. Public mask wearing and mRNA-based vaccine boosters will become the norm until at least the middle of this decade.
Disinformation is Killing Us
Social media is addictive. It appeals to our social curiosity, and the gamified collecting of likes and followers has billions of people around the world constantly seeking the next hit of dopamine online. Unfortunately, social media has become a cesspool of the worst of human behavior and a bullhorn for extremely dangerous disinformation and conspiracy theories. A conspiracy theory on social media can quickly outpace and drown out more reputable sources of information. This isn’t by accident; it’s by design. As Mike Monteiro wrote in Ruined by Design: “The world isn’t broken. It’s working exactly as it was designed to work. And we’re the ones who designed it. Which means we fucked up.”
Disinformation is killing millions of people by broadcasting an anti-science, false view of the world that convinces large swathes of the population to forego life-saving vaccines and to deny the science of climate change. Without good information and without a fact-based view of the world, we can’t make decisions that will save lives and all of civilization.
Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, and other platforms are inflicting enormous damage on society by helping to spread disinformation, while profiting mightily. In this decade, we must figure out how to solve this problem, or we will face an increasingly deluded populace. Companies must be held accountable for inflicting harm on society.
In 1995, scientist Carl Sagan saw this coming when he wrote in his book The Demon Haunted World: “We’ve arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.” It’s now blowing up in our faces, and this decade we must figure out how to fix it in order to make meaningful forward progress as a civilization.
A Medical Revolution
The remarkable success of the mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 were the culmination of decades of research into genetic medicine. That success will open the doors to an astonishing array of new methods of diagnoses and treatments.
This decade, patients in many developed countries will be able have their entire genome sequenced, stored with their medical records, and referenced by their doctors to inform diagnosis and treatment of a broad range of illnesses. The sophistication of machine learning algorithms performing realtime diagnosis of illnesses and injuries — and even predicting future illnesses using large, unstructured medical data pools — will grow exponentially. Specialist AI employing Cognitive Genomic Intelligence will provide realtime interpretation of medical test results.
The use of mRNA therapies will expand rapidly. Already, these treatments have cured diabetes in mice. By the end of this decade, we may have vaccines for many illnesses, including diabetes, cystic fibrosis, heart disease, tuberculosis, influenza, HIV, and certain types of cancer. Companies such as Moderna, BioNTech and CureVac are working on mRNA treatments for these and many other diseases.
In many countries around the world, Telehealth will become the norm for most primary care, preventative care and appointments with clinicians to treat mild illness. Wearable tech and ingestible smart pills (already in testing for several years) will contribute health data to patients’ data files, and patients will increasingly have access to their own health data analytics. If systems are designed correctly, this will lead to better access and lower cost healthcare with improved outcomes. Medical technology and new Telehealth disruptors will grow exponentially this decade.
Automated Everything
Self-driving cars are still in their infancy, yet are already statistically safer than the average human driver in most situations. Thus, they still require human supervision and intervention. By 2030, autonomous vehicles will be capable of full automation, meaning they will be able to perform all driving and navigation tasks without the need for human intervention. This will mark the emergence of a new business model in transportation: Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Rather than owning a vehicle, people will be able to subscribe to a mobility service. When ground transportation is needed, an autonomous car is dispatched.
Advancements in AI will continue to drive a revolution in the automation of everything from scheduling appointments to manufacturing to global logistics. We are unlikely to achieve the “technological singularity”* this decade (*artificial intelligence that is equal in cognitive capabilities to humans) but our weak AIs will become increasingly sophisticated, and affective computing (enabling computers to read and emulate emotions)will make them feel more human-like. By the end of this decade, people having emotional relationships with their AIs will be trending news.
Automation will continue to replace low-wage jobs. By 2030, many industries such as fast food, e-commerce distribution and delivery, agriculture and manufacturing will be taken over by robots and AI. This will drive up unemployment in these industries, but at the same time many high-paying information economy jobs will be created.
We will discover that AIs often work better not by replacing humans but by working in partnership with us. Personal AI assistants will help us manage our data, communications, schedules, our bills, and our digital life in the cloud. Specialized algorithms will help professionals do their work more efficiently.
Nonetheless, many workers will need help transitioning to new professions, and the importance of on-demand, skills-based remote education will continue to grow. Many developed countries (although probably not the United States) will adopt policies of Universal Basic Income and shorter work weeks in order to keep their economies functioning, improve productivity, and boost happiness.
The Transformation of Work
The way we have been doing things doesn’t work. A growing body of research shows that humans function at peak efficiency working around 30 hours a week, that open office plans kill productivity and happiness, and that most work can be performed just as well (if not better) remotely rather than in an office.
The shift is already happening. By the end of this decade, the most innovative companies in the world will offer full remote work and 4-day work weeks. Starlink will provide high speed global internet, truly allowing people to work from anywhere. Companies with remote workforces and shorter work weeks will have a competitive advantage due to increased productivity, happiness and creativity.
To compete in the global employment marketplace, workers will increasingly need online certificates and short course to rapidly learn new skills and customize skillsets. The rise of remote work will empower many skilled workers in the developing world to raise their standard of living and lift families out of poverty. At the same time, unskilled workers in developed and developing nations alike will feel left out of the new economy.
Politics and Society in America
Note: It is challenging in America in 2021 to have a rational and dispassionate discussion of the current political landscape. In writing this section I acknowledge my biases (I hold progressive views on most social and economic issues) while striving to analyze the trends and phenomena from a non-partisan perspective (I have no party affiliation). Having lived and worked for extended periods of time in Europe and the Middle East also, I believe, helps me form an outsiders perspective.
Common talking points in the mass media hype the narrative of “deep divisions” in the American politic. There are indeed deep ideological divisions between the moderately progressive majority of Americans and the right-wing religious White Nationalist minority. But there is an even wider gap between the representatives in America’s governments and the population at large, a structural problem that will become more pronounced this decade and will drive more social friction. When it comes to values and culture, the America of the 2020s is at war with the America of the 1820s.
Voter turnout in the American 2020 election broke all records and affirmed the fact that a strong majority of Americans hold moderately progressive views on a range of social, environmental and economic issues. Historically, when American elections have had very high turnout, the losing side responds by engaging in voter suppression tactics. This year was no different, as we have seen a plethora of shocking voting restrictions enacted by conservative state legislatures across the country that specifically target Black and Latinx people. Legal challenges are likely to mostly fail, and Congress has so far failed to advance voting rights protections. This means that in the 2022 midterms and 2024 federal elections, conservatives are likely to prevail in states where the vote is significantly suppressed.
There exist fundamental flaws in the American system of representative democracy, and those flaws are become more amplified in this century. Already since 2000, there have been two elections where the loser of the popular vote was installed as U.S. president. Today, approximately 30% of Americans (who lean conservative) choose roughly 70% of the representatives in government. Mathematically, it is possible for a presidential candidate to lose the election by more than four million votes, yet still “win” via the baffling Electoral College. As this system of minority rule worsens, the social friction it causes will increase.
When we look at political attitudes by generation, each younger generation is much more progressive than the previous one. Millennials and Gen-Z are more progressive than Gen-X, and are a lot more progressive than Boomers. As conservatives steal more elections through voter suppression tactics, the ideological gap between those in power and the American population at large will widen rapidly and dramatically this decade, leading to more friction.
But what is truly alarming is that the GOP now shows a willingness to directly attack core American institutions. On January 6, 2021, the orchestrated assault on the nation’s capital was an attempt by the GOP to violently overthrow the election, and to kidnap and publicly execute government representatives. The insurrectionists planned (and almost succeeded) to hang to death House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Mike Pence (among others) in front of the U.S. Capitol Building, using a gallows that was erected on site. Now they absurdly deny any involvement, or even that the events ever took place. The ludicrous gaslighting (an old tactic employed to perpetuate racism) is reminiscent of a scene from the 1988 film The Naked Gun, when a fireworks factory is exploding in a fiery spectacle, while a police officer admonishes the gathering crowd: “Nothing to see here, move along!” Expect more violent insurrections and gaslighting by White Nationalists this decade, exacerbated by overrepresentation of a radical minority that is increasingly out of touch with mainstream Americans.
The U.S. Supreme Court also sits far to the right of mainstream America, and will likely continue for the rest of this decade. There is a significant risk that freedoms such as reproductive rights and civil rights protections will be repealed by the right-wing activist court, multiplying frictions with the American populace.
There are two Americas: a majority that is moderately progressive, diverse, secular, and high-earning; and a minority that is regressive, xenophobic, religious, and economically depressed. The United States still has not adequately reconciled its history of racism, slavery, and genocide. I believe a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, a restorative justice body like the one that helped South Africa transition from apartheid, as well as issuing reparations for descendants of enslaved Black people and members of Native American tribes, are needed to heal the nation and move forward. Unfortunately, none of this will happen until the country vanquishes its White Nationalism problem, demilitarizes law enforcement, and fixes the systemic structural flaws in the political system that disenfranchise the American people.
There is significant risk this decade that the radical minority succeeds in overthrowing the U.S. government and instituting laws that increasingly restrict personal freedoms and target the progressive and non-white majorities. During the 2020 election, the leaders of America’s military were extremely concerned about this scenario. If this happens, most states in the Midwest and South would almost instantly backslide to poor developing nation status due to a crumbling of the Federal aid systems that currently keep them afloat.
Depopulating Coastal Cities
Beginning this decade, we will start to see coastal cities that are vulnerable to climate change depopulate. This is not just going to happen in the developing world, but in wealthy nations as well. In North America, cities such as New York, Miami and New Orleans are just a few examples of those that are at severe risk. A direct hit by a category 5 hurricane on at least one of these cities this decade is increasingly likely, and would be devastating.
In spite of this bad news, there is an opportunity to (re)build cities that are sustainable and human-centered. New eco-modular building methods, emerging vertical farming technologies, the rapid increase in remote work, and intelligent public transit systems could power a new era in urban design.
Climate and the Carbon Economy
The 2020s is the decade that climate change ramps up in ways that are impossible to ignore. Get accustomed to hearing words like “unprecedented” to describe the rapid onslaught of compounding climate disasters. Wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, typhoons, floods, heat waves, more powerful winter storms, and other extreme weather events are already becoming the norm. These will all continue to worsen in terms of frequency, size, and intensity.
Already, climate change is fueling an increase in failed nations, defined as countries where a sovereign government no longer functions properly and basic living conditions for its citizens collapse. Syria is a prime example of a country that has collapsed, not due to the proxy excuses of religious or political tensions, but due to climate-driven desertification of farmland and wars in neighboring countries. The ecological collapse of the Fertile Crescent in the Middle East has driven millions of climate refugees into Syria’s cities, competing for fewer and fewer resources. The repressive dictatorship was unable to do anything but cling to power, and as conditions worsened, civil war was almost inevitable. Many nations are at high risk of following a similar path.
There are early warning signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which transports warm, salty water from the tropics to northern Europe and then sends colder water back south along the ocean floor may be starting to shut down due to human-caused climate change. If the AMOC shuts down, Europe and the North-Eastern U.S. and Canada would be plunged into a mini-ice age, and monsoons that bring water to other parts of the world would be disrupted.
The bad news is that no matter what we do, the effects of climate change will continue to worsen this decade, due to the fact that collectively the world has failed to do anything to mitigate it for the last 30+ years. The global climate accords agreed to in the past, though well-intentioned, failed to produce meaningful results. We are still headed in the wrong direction.
The good news is that if we take decisive actions to change from a carbon-based economy to a renewables-based economy, on a global scale, then the climate will begin to stabilize in the middle of this century. Another piece of good news is that we don’t need to invent any new technologies to achieve this. With current 2021 technologies, and with a wartime scale mobilization, we could transform the global economy over several years, and create hundreds of millions of new jobs. By 2030, Ecological Restoration will become a multi-billion dollar industry, and vital to a larger strategy of stabilizing the Earth’s climate.
Recurring and compounding disasters and swelling numbers of climate refugees will constantly remind us that this decade is our last chance to save the world. Every company, organization and government at every level needs a plan to go carbon negative as soon as possible. Political leaders have failed us over and over, and we can’t wait to take action. If we haven’t changed course by 2030, then much of human civilization will collapse later this century. But I believe we will change course, and we will emerge from the struggles of this decade to a brighter future in the 2030s. •
Acknowledgements
The contents of this report are the culmination of more than six months of research, and I am constantly learning from my students at ArtCenter College of Design. In particular, I want to thank Melody Abolian, Dillon Chi, Elizabeth Costa, Charlene Joy Dela Cruz, Tobey Karpenko, Darae Kim, Tim Kim, Pengmao Li, Xun Liu, Yihan Luo, John Ma, Mehar Nangia, Mason Noboru, Anthony Palileo, Huangchen Qi, Ruoxiao Sun, Jiaying Wang, Feng Ye, and Ziyi Zhou, and Yujia Zhoung. Your research, insights, and ideas give me hope for the future.
Special thanks to Crystal Scaff for editing this manuscript.
